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Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Who is Michael Mann?

You may not know who Michael Mann is but without doubt you know his famous conclusion: "that the temperature increases that we have been experiencing are "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" of the millennium.

Mann's findings have been the most influential study in the swaying of public consensus since 2001. His views were adopted by the International Panel for Climate Change, the UN body that is organizing the worldwide effort to combat global warming.

But, along comes Dr. Edward Wegman. Dr. Wegman is a full professor at the Center for Computational Statistics at George Mason University. He is chair of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics. He is also on the board of the American Statistical Association. Suffice it to say... he is one of the few statisticians in the world that has such a stellar CVs.

Dr. Wegman was asked to validate the statistical work of Michael Mann. In short - to validate the findings that has sparked almost a decade of hysteria.

Dr. Wegman found that Michael Mann had made a simple and basic error. Dr. Wegman stated that the errors found: "may be easily overlooked by someone not trained in statistical methodology." He continues: "This small group of climate scientists were working on their own, largely in isolation, and without the academic scrutiny needed to ferret out false assumptions."

Dr. Wegman continues: "Worse, the problem also applied more generally, to the broader climate-change and meteorological community, which also relied on statistical techniques in their studies.

Dr. Wegman, in conclusion, has determined that simple statistical mistakes were made. Yes, peer reviews were accomplished he says but no one once thought to check the math. As a result, Dr. Wegman regards these earth shattering results as "not accurate" and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Sadly, these results have ignited a firestorm of hysteria from the United Nations to the paperboy on the street corner.

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